Cotton Market Trend in 2016 Cotton Total Output Decreated Sharp Cotton Prices Expected to Rise

From 2010 to early 2016,Cotton PriceFrom a higher 34879 yuan per ton to a lower 9890 yuan per ton, a drop of 70%. But since April of this year,CottonFutures prices began to rise sharply, from 10200 yuan per ton to 16185 yuan per ton, an increase of nearly 60%. The cotton market, which has been in the doldrums for many years, has been sought after again. Seeing the cotton harvest is imminent, how will the increase in cotton prices affect the income of cotton farmers?

InShandongWangjiazhuang Village in Binzhou City, Province, where cotton is currently in the stage of flowering and peaches. Cotton farmer Wang Jianjun told reporters that in the next month and a half, as long as there is no continuous heavy rainfall or typhoon, the estimated output is more than 450 (jin). If you manage it well, you can control diseases and insect pests and even reach 500 jin per mu of land, and this year's cotton will hopefully have a bumper harvest.

The reporter learned in the interview that at present, cotton can produce 450 jin per mu of land, compared with 350 jin per mu last year, the increase has reached 50%, and according to the current market situation, one jin can be sold to 3.5 yuan after listing. Wang Jianjun said that the cotton output of one mu of land is nearly 450 jin. If calculated, one mu of land may earn three hundred and five hundred, and he can earn about 100,000 yuan in this two hundred mu.

Expert opinion
Zheng Bo, a market analyst, told reporters that cotton prices have been in the doldrums in recent years, and cotton farmers' willingness to plant has not been high. Last year, the price of cotton was only 2.5 yuan per catty. Due to bad weather and low yield per mu, the income per mu of cotton was less than 800 yuan. However, in terms of cost, if the land contract fee and the labor cost of agricultural materials are added, the cost alone will cost 1000 yuan. Even with the state subsidy of 150 yuan per mu, cotton farmers are still in a situation of losing money.
Since May, the national cotton reserve has started to turn out. The market relies on the national cotton reserve to fill the gap. Recently, driven by the rising of internal and external cotton and the rising reserve cotton sales reserve price, the domestic cotton price has been continuously moving up. As of July 27, the average domestic cotton price has been rising to 15105 yuan/ton, up 19.53 percent from the previous month and 13.18 percent from the previous year. The sharp rise in raw materials has fully ignited the sentiment of the spinning and weaving links in the middle and lower reaches. Pure cotton yarn rebounded strongly and rarely jumped. According to statistics, the national average price of 32 high-end combs was 22800 yuan/ton by the end of July, up 7.55 percent from the beginning of the month when the price rebounded by 1600 yuan/ton."
In Binzhou, Shandong, many cotton farmers told reporters that because they lost money in planting cotton last year, the local cotton planting area has been greatly reduced this year. Cui Shaoxu, a cotton farmer in Bincheng District, Binzhou City, Shandong Province, said that he had changed to other crops. Last year, our village planted more than 4,000 mu, but this year it was less than 2,000 mu.WheatOrCorn.

Sun Liwu, a market analyst, said that the planting area of cotton in China is generally low this year. Taking Shandong as an example, the planting area is 26% lower than that of last year.
In Shandong's main cotton producing areas, through a sample survey of 500 cotton farmers, the final statistics show that in 2016, the cotton planting area in Shandong was about 4 million mu, down 26% from last year. From a national perspective, the final calculation shows that in 2016, the national planting area was 42.66 million mu, down 14.4 from last year.
Regarding the in stock price of cotton to be listed, market analyst Zheng Bo predicts that although cotton prices are not supported by large demand, due to the supply gap, cotton prices still have room to rise in the short term-it is expected that high cotton prices make terminal purchases and sales tend to be cautious, and it is still difficult for the downstream to give the demand basis for cotton prices to soar, but the supply gap in the new year still supports cotton prices, and short-term cotton prices are easy to rise and difficult to fall, but we need to pay attention to the policy in the face of cotton price guidance.
Regarding the in stock price of cotton to be listed, market analyst Zheng Bo predicts that although cotton prices are not supported by large demand, due to the supply gap, cotton prices still have room to rise in the short term-it is expected that high cotton prices make terminal purchases and sales tend to be cautious, and it is still difficult for the downstream to give the demand basis for cotton prices to soar, but the supply gap in the new year still supports cotton prices, and short-term cotton prices are easy to rise and difficult to fall, but we need to pay attention to the policy in the face of cotton price guidance.